Bertie goes - Cowen in the driving seat now!

[Bord na Mona man]

I'm as much a fan of Biffo as the next man, but you're fairly buying into the spin yourself if you think that a guy who has just spent the last four years as Minister for Finance could come out and say that forces outside our control caused all this.

I'm quite underwhelmed myself. He came in with an overwhelming mandate within the parliamentary party at least, and as the holder of the largest vote in Ireland, one could argue he had a massive personal mandate as well - yet he has not taken the chance to do any of the little things that would send out the signal to the populace that we're all in this together, rather than the usual Fianna Fáil thing of "ye'll have to tighten ye're belts, but I'll be loosening mine because this builder mate of mine has just bought me a steak."

He could have got rid of half the junior ministers - he didn't.
He could have got rid of token regional ministers who have proven their incompetence - guys like Cullen and O'Cuiv - he didn't.
He could have categorically come out and said that the recent recommended pay rises for politicians and senior civil services will not be implemented - he didn't, even though they won't be paid and eventually it will look like the opposition and public opinion forced the turnaround.
He could have got the Dáil to stay in session to bring in an emergency budget to sort all this out and nip it in the bud - he didn't, the lads are all nipping off for the summer as per usual. It's not like there's a recession starting or anything.
He could have drawn a line between Fianna Fáil of the past and the present, or at least attempted to do by booting the "Class Act" out on her oversized classless arse - but he didn't, he let her back into the party whereby she's straight away talking about the exchequer bailing out the Galway Race tent massive by buying up all the poor developers unsold stock.

I really want to believe in our Brian, I really do. For whatever reason I've taken a lot of this kind of stuff to heart in recent years and some of the antics of Bertie and his boys have left me on the brink of wanting to have a revolution and hang the hoors from the highest crane in the middle of the large swathes of under-serviced commuter belt that they have created, but I held off because something about Brian made me believe he was different.

Nothing he has done is remotely different so far and I can feel the urge to sharpen the guillotine coming back to be honest.

It's all very well suggesting Cowen does all the above, but one thing he isn't is a fool.
He would be slitting his own throat by implementing some of those suggestions.

Most of the measures would make little difference anyway. Removing Junior ministers would be of little benefit apart from perhaps appeasing people who demand gesture politics. Is it worth upsetting significant groups in the political party over, just to save a couple of hundred grand and temporarily please a few people (who probably will never vote for you anyway)?

Running a government is all about trade-offs. In theory you would like to plough ahead and implement whatever policies you feel like on a given day, however it is never that simple. You have to delicately balance different forces that are pulling in several directions.

Look at the Green Party for example. In opposition the talked a great game altogether. The whole holier than thou, cleaning up the system talk (much like the PDs before them).
Funny enough now that they are in government, they same to have their shoulder behind the wheel the same as Fianna Fail.
Maybe behind all the muesli eating moralising, they are realists.
You don't get your policies implemented by kicking down doors and stepping on toes.

The government ministers should take salary cuts though. Just for the look of it. Politics is all about the optics after all. While Mr Cowen is not known for being big on spin and style, he should probably make a few token gestures to get the public onside. A few Mickey Mouse headline grabbing cuts on ministers and government members that might make little difference, but won't upset anybody.

In the longer term, I think the economy badly needs more prudent spending. In order to make cutbacks on the ordinary public the government definitely needs to be seen to cutting back on their own expenses too. One thing the people hate when times are tough are the possibilty that politicans are living fat cat lifestyles.

[corner back]

Have an awful feeling the Fianna Fail party is more important to Mr Cowen than anything else. They love him in the party because of this.

While I agree by cutting jobs all around him in the party he would be slitting his throat, I think he overdid the political game with his cabinet formation. His Tanaiste, Mary Coughlan, has already screwed up a few times and is hardly comparable to Mary Harney or Cowen himself as a right-hand man (woman) you need in the trenches. He failed to get rid of Cullen because of his regional status as the only south eastern minister. I find it hard to credit that anyone in Wexford or Kilkenny would give two hoots whether or not the region had a minister and would probably be more likely to vote for a government with a Taoiseach with leadership qualities not afraid to make difficult decisions.

I'll bide my time before completely writing him off but it has not been an auspicious start, even taking into account the difficult times.

[Lone Shark]

Most of the measures would make little difference anyway. Removing Junior ministers would be of little benefit apart from perhaps appeasing people who demand gesture politics. Is it worth upsetting significant groups in the political party over, just to save a couple of hundred grand and temporarily please a few people (who probably will never vote for you anyway)?

I couldn't disagree more. The implication there is that the country will always be run to the interests of the FF Party first and the nation second, and that we should just accept this. Now obviously I appreciate the large rump of voters in this country who, if they turned on the TV and saw Bertie Ahern or Enda Kenny put a small puppy in the microwave and turn it on, would still vote they way their Grandad did because that's just what you do. That exists and we'll just have to live with it. However we cannot revert to the system whereby there is hardship all round and the only way out is to have access to yourlocal TD for a few dodgy favours.

The thing about gesture politics is that in the coming years our government will be able to do feck all except gesture politics. Keynesian economics as everyone likes to advocate won't be worth a feck because our government borrows the money and before it gets to turn around in the economy at all it has been spent on imported oil, imported leisure goods or some such meaning that Irish producers won't see the benefit. We can't influence money supply, interest rates, exchange rates. We can't (and shouldn't) deal with the housing surplus and price collapse even if we wanted to, and we don't have either the money or the political and national will to try and revamp either the public service or the health and education sectors. When the money was coming in, we could have put in place measures to keep it here - but instead we spent it all on big German cars. Now everyone is giving out because we owe the Germans money and them feckin hoors keep rising rates - shock horror. That was the chance for this government to really govern - but they didn't and they have feck all chance to do it now.

Ireland is in the situation it is in because we have become a nation that has got used to shortcuts. Our only export was essentially a bit of space for the multinationals to do business with the quid pro quo being that we won't tax them too much. Building houses for people to live in was too difficult, so we built a load of "starter homes" (read: box apartments with no space, paper thin walls and no amenities) that will be ghettos in 20 years, but nobody cared, least of all the buyers, because all they wanted to do was buy them, sell them on to the next poor schmuck for 10% extra per year of ownership and keep the bubble going. The government privatised the national debt by ramping up the property boom, getting everyone to take out huge mortgages and getting unprecedented stamp duty and VAT returns into their pockets as a result. The national debt was paid off, except we now all owe fortunes individually.

The only way out of this is very simple - cut the shortcuts, cut the nod and wink culture, cut out this crack of living a €100k per annum lifestyle off two €30 per annum salaries and remortgaging to make up the difference, and actually work at producing something the world wants. But here's the thing - that requires personal sacrifice from everyone. We all have to knuckle down, and that will only happen if we're all at it. Skivers, dodgers, idlers and incompetents can't be seen to prosper - which is where the gesture politics is all important. If we have a minister for Waterford, then Waterford will keep electing eejits who happen to have Cowen's ear bent. Cullen in turn will keep showering the goods on Waterford rather than actually trying to be a good minister for sport because he knows that's what gets him the job, thus the whole country suffers.

Basically people will not knuckle down while sleeveenism is being seen to thrive. A plethora of junior ministries that we can't afford and don't need only exaggerates the "jobs for the boys" culture. A public slap in the face has to be given to that whole ethos if your average Dilbert O'Kelly is going to go into his cubicle all day and keep working in the face of tax hikes, inflation hikes and a declining standard of living, all to pay for the excess of the years gone by.

[Bord na Mona man]

I agree that people need to greater responsibility for their lifestyles and finance.
However those who chose to blow their money on unsustainable extravagant lifestyles can hardly blame the government for this.
Boom and bust cycles are all part of capitalism, its just that we aren't used to them in Ireland.
People might be wiser the next time around.

When the government did make attempts to intervene to cool the property market, they were told quite emphatically to take a hike. "The market will decide, you can't beat back the tide, Irish property really is worth hundreds and hundreds of thousands, this time it's different etc".

Correct that Irish people got used to the idea that wealth just falls on your lap. The sort of smug "I loike bought a house for 500k last year, now it is worth 600k, I'm such a smart goy" attitude prevailed. Many of these folks will probably be looking for a government bailout now.

However Junior ministries are harmless enough in the overall scheme of things.
The arguments on costs is a non-runner, as they are insignificant. The argument that a few thousand saved would help rescure the economy is pure Joe Duffy caller talk. We heard it all when people raged about the GAA getting grants.

Would we really be better off if pissed off party members were continually tabling no confidence motions or opposing legislation?
Every democracy political that I am familiar with has some sort of sweeteners to make sure governments don't have to waste their time putting out fires lit by malcontents. They are necessary to keep factions quiet and make it easier to run a functioning government.

In Britain they have knighthoods, peerages and a myriad of Quango positions to hand out to the boys.
In the US there are oceans of committees and groups to occupy politicians on.
It is political reality worldwide, trying to tackle it wouldn't anyone's starting point in trying to solve Ireland's economic problems.

[manfromdelmonte]

cut back by aboloshing half the junior ministries. a lot of them aren't needed.

hike up the tax on people who earn over €80,000. A lot of them pay feck all tax anyway

cut the hand outs to the Racing industry. let them get sponsors or bookies to pay for race prizes

do not let TDs etc have a pay rise.

Bring back 3rd level fees if parents earn over €100,000 combined.

stop wealthy self employed people getting 3rd level maintenance grants for their children by fiddling their tax returns.

more to come...

[Lone Shark]

I agree that people need to greater responsibility for their lifestyles and finance.
However those who chose to blow their money on unsustainable extravagant lifestyles can hardly blame the government for this.
Boom and bust cycles are all part of capitalism, its just that we aren't used to them in Ireland.
People might be wiser the next time around.

When the government did make attempts to intervene to cool the property market, they were told quite emphatically to take a hike. "The market will decide, you can't beat back the tide, Irish property really is worth hundreds and hundreds of thousands, this time it's different etc".

They took no measures whatsoever, instead they ramped it up - section 23, let the banks loan what they want, mortgage interest relief way in excess of rent relief, easy get out clauses for landlords who saw the dollar signs and wanted to sell.....

The Bacon report came along and they canned it - our fate was sealed then, no FF led government made any attempt to make the general population see sense.

As for the extravagant blaming the government, well when the head of government says that (1) The boom is getting boomer and (2) People should buy a house now because they won't be able to afford one next year (2005 or 2006, I can't remember) while saying that any counter voices urging caution should go away and commit suicide, I think it's fair to say that those of a nervous disposition who didn't have any economic grounding got swept up in it. Obviously personal responsibility was fairly absent all through, but there was no sign of any level headedness from the head honchos - the punch bowl kept on being filled, and to hell with the hangover tomorrow.

However Junior ministries are harmless enough in the overall scheme of things.
The arguments on costs is a non-runner, as they are insignificant. The argument that a few thousand saved would help rescure the economy is pure Joe Duffy caller talk. We heard it all when people raged about the GAA getting grants.

Of course they are insignificant - I don't think anyone is labouring under the belief that canning ten junior ministries would suddenly save 1000 hospital beds or anything like it. The point is that real cuts will have to be made and the public have to buy into that. Take the national pay agreement talks - we cannot afford any increases whatsoever and a round of strikes would do untold damage round about now, but how do you get unions and workers to buy in if you're exempting yourself and your mates from the hardship?

It would be a lot easier put up with dis-satisfied back benchers than it would be put up with 5000 teachers on strike for the month of September.

[Bord na Mona man]

cut back by aboloshing half the junior ministries. a lot of them aren't needed.

hike up the tax on people who earn over €80,000. A lot of them pay feck all tax anyway

cut the hand outs to the Racing industry. let them get sponsors or bookies to pay for race prizes

do not let TDs etc have a pay rise.

Bring back 3rd level fees if parents earn over €100,000 combined.

stop wealthy self employed people getting 3rd level maintenance grants for their children by fiddling their tax returns.

more to come...

- Abolishing Junior Ministries would save maybe 500k or 1m a year. There is a deficit of a few billion. A gesture more than a sturdy piece of fiscal reform.

- Hiking up taxes for the wealthy might earn some more, or it may well send them into tax exile. Just look at Bono legging it to Holland once the artist taxes were tightened. The wealthy are the ones with the best means to up sticks to dodge tax increases.

- Cut the tax breaks for the Racing industry and you may jeopardise thousand of jobs that are depondent on Ireland being an international racing hotbed. The Arabs aren't here for the weather.

- Fees for 3rd level for the wealthy. I'd agree, granted that 3rd level is already heavily subsidised by the government. You'd have to measure it so as wealthy students don't decide to head abroad instead though.

- Stopping the TD pay rise. Again, for the symbolism yes. For raising money. €1 or €2 million towards a deficit of a few billion. You'd need to come with a few hundred more cutbacks like this to make any impact.

- Stopping the wealthy self employed from dodging taxes. If only it was a easy as that and it would have done years ago.

Maybe everyone realises that cutbacks are required, but want cutbacks for everyone except themselves?

[Lone Shark]

Maybe everyone realises that cutbacks are required, but want cutbacks for everyone except themselves?

This is the thing - I have no problems with cutbacks that affect me, as long as it's a case of we're all in this together so let's get out of it together. This is why it's all important that there are no sacred cows, no special exemptions and no nods and winks. I firmly believe that this country will accept cutbacks if we're all mucking in and everyone's in the same boat - but if that impression is not given, then people don't buy into it and the whole thing grinds to a halt.

[Bord na Mona man]

They took no measures whatsoever, instead they ramped it up - section 23, let the banks loan what they want, mortgage interest relief way in excess of rent relief, easy get out clauses for landlords who saw the dollar signs and wanted to sell.....

The Bacon report came along and they canned it - our fate was sealed then, no FF led government made any attempt to make the general population see sense.

The Section 23 relief went on too long granted.

However implementing some of the Bacon report recommendations actually made matters worse.
For example, making it unattractive for investers to buy property meant that after the turn of the millennium, the rental market went crazy with big price increases because of the ensuing rental accommodation shortage.
There is only so much a government can do once a giant herd is stampeding in a particular direction.

The point is, people can't continually expect a nanny government to run their lives for them and bail them out when it all goes belly up.
Nobody was forced to buy an expensive jeep on hire purchase, or holiday home in Bulgaria. People did these things out of their own choice.

The fall of the Cetic Tiger is a bit like the fall of Offaly hurling.
We thought making money and hurlers was easy.
That we had it cracked and great things were naturally going to happen to us from now on.
We forgot about the hard work needed.

[manfromdelmonte]

unlike the celtic tiger, the Offaly hurling revolution came from the HARD WORK of a few dedicated people

[Lone Shark]

unlike the celtic tiger, the Offaly hurling revolution came from the HARD WORK of a few dedicated people

I'd argue the Celtic tiger did too.

Mainly Polish people though.

[turk]

Discussion Point

This has been a disastrous couple of weeks for Mr Cowen which has seen his credibilty shattered.

[Bord na Mona man]

Discussion Point

This has been a disastrous couple of weeks for Mr Cowen which has seen his credibilty shattered.

Yep, it certainly has been.
You'd wonder would Bertie have been too cute to aim cutbacks at pensioners?
The more comfortable middle classes wouldn't have been half as outraged had the cutbacks been focussed at them.

Regardless though, I'd say the country is fairly fooked for a few years.
I'd worry about the smaller towns in more rural counties. Now that the construction industry has come to a sudden halt, there are thousands of young men who will find it hard to make a living.
In some places, house building was the only show in town when it came to employment.

[Archangel]

I'm fairly pissed off right now, been put on a 3-day-week! The Country's fucked, all the benefits from the boom years wasted by inept governance, , probably we all saw this coming except the government. Nice timing, just before xmas, going to be down a nice bit in wages....Santa's on a diet.

[Bord na Mona man]

I'm fairly pissed off right now, been put on a 3-day-week! The Country's fucked, all the benefits from the boom years wasted by inept governance, , probably we all saw this coming except the government. Nice timing, just before xmas, going to be down a nice bit in wages....Santa's on a diet.

That's a real pain.
I think everyone will be hit eventually.
You'd be surprised how each sector of the economy affects the other.

I think it will require a real overhaul to get the country back going again. Cutbacks are only short term, we need to come up with a longer term strategy to promote new enterprise.