Upcoming General Election - Laois/Offaly constituency

[Bord na Mona man]

16:39 Laois-Offaly, 97% Boxes Open, FF 38%, FG 28%, LAB 2%, PD 6%, SF 5%, Prediction 3FF, 2FG

Parlon for the chop unless he gets a windfall of transfers.
I wonder how much did McTool's posturing about breaking away from Fianna Fail at the start of the campaign affect the goodwill of FF voters towards the PDs?

Left wing politics certainly aren't in vogue in L/O!

[Bord na Mona man]

Candidates Party Status 1st preference votes

Charles Flanagan FG 9067
Olwyn Enright FG 8297
Molly Buckley FG 2196
Brian Cowen FF 19102
John Moloney FF 7242
Sean Fleming FF 8064
John Foley FF 5899
Tom Parlon PD 4233
Brian Stanley SF 3656
Jim O'Brien Lab 1278
David Whelan Lab 425
Maire McKay Green 812
John Bracken Ind 934
Joseph McCormack Ind 85
Noel O'Gara Ind 45
Colm Callanan CS 156

[Bord na Mona man]

Cowen romps home with a large surplus. Parlon's vote base collapses as Flanagan powers back in.

I talked to some (not necessarily Fine Gael) people who actually gave Charles Flanagan the nod in order to get Parlon out. I would consider many of the farming community who voted for Parlon in 2002 very naive to think he was going make any significant changes to agriculture. And to be fair to him, he did as much as he could to deliver for the consituency in the post he had.

The 2nd count results are on Aertel and John Foley is really gunning Moloney now. Only 84 votes behind.
The distribution of votes will be crucual here. County lines might be followed.
Bracken's and Parlon's possibly helping Foley.
Stanley's and Fleming's transfer helping the Leix man.

It would be no harm to keep the Offaly 3 Leix 2 balance for another term!

[Lone Shark]

Even in his demise, Parlon does nothing for us - more of his transfers went to Moloney than Foley, thus sending the Leix man past the post.

Incidentally, does anyone else feel a bit peeved at Cyprian Brady getting elected? The Taoiseach's constituency (shock horror) gets four seats despite many three seat constituencies having a comparable electorate. Lowest quota in the the country, Brady gets elected with 6348 votes and a pathetic 939 first preferences.

In contrast:

Pearse Doherty (SF) 8462 first preferences
Joe O'Reilly (FG) 9550 first preferences
Paul Bradford (FG) 8916 first preferences

None of which get elected. Now I know that FF could point to John Ellis of Ros/South LM as well with almost 8000 first preferences, but surely something is wrong when you get this kind of anomaly.

I'm aware that (1) we need all areas, urban and rural, to be represented, and (2) the Single Transferable Vote system is designed to make sure that if a voter does not get their first preference, they at least get to ask for someone else instead. However this looks like a perversion of the system, and I know if hear any FF candidates talking about "mandate" I'll find it very difficult not to raise an eyebrow.

[Bord na Mona man]

I thought Foley was going to overtake Moloney after he was still withing striking range after Stanley's transfers. The bulk of Parlon's votes must have come from PD supporters and those who believed in returning the same 4 TDs to the government, as opposed to people from "Parlon country".

However Foley put in a very impressive run. He built up a good profile for himself over the last few years. If there was an election in a year's time, I'd expect him to be the 3rd FF TD. Whether he'll bide his time for another (possibly) 5 years is the question.

[Doon Massive]

Does anyone know why it took so long for the first count?
And the rest of the count for that matter........number of candidates, number of ballot boxes?

Lots of candidates had to pop out for sandwiches.

[Bord na Mona man]

Does anyone know why it took so long for the first count?
And the rest of the count for that matter........number of candidates, number of ballot boxes?

Lots of candidates had to pop out for sandwiches.

For as long as I can remember, Laois/Offaly has always been seriously slow with the counts. Granted it's a 5 seat contituency, but they are continually miles behind the rest.

By late afternoon on Friday they supposedly had 97% of the boxes counted, yet it was near 11pm before the 1st count was declared. Obviously in the mean time the counters all joined Tom Parlon in the pub on a session...of eating sandwiches.

[azoffaly]

I knew Parlon would have no luck for getting that stupid plane to fly around O'Moore Park during the Laois Offaly U-21 game.