Good luck to Laois

[joe bloggs]

Not in the U21 final v the cats (they'll need more than good luck), but in breaking up with us politically.

The constituency commission has recommended a 3 seat constituency for Offaly to include some of north west Tipp. The good people of shinrone and coolderry will be returned to us along with some of Michael Lowry's posse.

Personally I think there are far too many td's in the country but it will be interesting to see how the six seats in the old Laois Offaly 5 seater fall

[Ahlethimoutwithit]

2 TDS in Laois/Offaly is 1 too much!
Corcoran/Traffic Light/Lampost/Kennedy & Barry "Im not Brian" Cowen, we should look for the funding for these 2 too be put into a five year plan to turnaround the GAA in the county. We had no jobs or money in the 80's but we were happy!!

[Lone Shark]

This has actually worked out very well for any aspiring TD in the county. Alan Kelly of Portroe and Labour TD for Tipp North is just on the border but even though he's lost a lot more catchment area, he'll probably be a lot happier to try and mop up the Labour vote in a large constituency and hold on that basis. That leaves only Marcella Corcoran Kennedy and Barry Cowen as incumbents. This should finally open the door for North Offaly to return a TD again, however equally some of that North Tipp area might throw up a few candidates.

For example, there will probably be a further rise in Sinn Féin's fortunes between now and the next election, as they are the only real opposition at the moment. They're in the happy position of not being responsible for anything since they had no power, and neither are they in power so they don't have to put up ideas that make sense, only ones that sound good. Somebody like Seamus Morris in Nenagh might take a look at a "disenfranchised" section of Tipp voters and reckon that he'll have a great chance of getting both a good local vote and a SF party vote. I certainly can't imagine who SF would run in Offaly that would be in a better position.

That would leave either Marcella squeezed on both sides.

It also leaves the constituency without any heavy hitters whatsoever, in any party. It's wrong that this should be a problem, but knowing how we do things in Ireland - and the recent announcement of Mayo getting most of the lotto funding suggests that we haven't changed anything - this is not a welcome development.

[Bord na Mona man]

How much of North Tipp are we getting?

[Lone Shark]

Scroll down to map 15.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0621/constituencyreport.pdf

Everything west of Birr and north of Nenagh, not including Nenagh itself. A good chunk of area, but not a huge population. Roscrea and everything on the eastern border of South Offaly stays with Tipp.

[Plain of the Herbs]

The Killeavy fella (Tullamore town councillor), I presume?

I certainly can't imagine who SF would run in Offaly that would be in a better position.

The new boundary also opens up possibilities for Peter Ormond. You'd presume FG will run 2 (MCK & Quinn), FF 2 (Biffo Beag & Ormond) SF will run Killeavy, then there's John Bracken and the rest. Obviously that's nearly 4 years away but at this stage 1 - 1 - 1 looks the likely outcome.

[Lone Shark]

The Killeavy fella (Tullamore town councillor), I presume?

I certainly can't imagine who SF would run in Offaly that would be in a better position.

The new boundary also opens up possibilities for Peter Ormond. You'd presume FG will run 2 (MCK & Quinn), FF 2 (Biffo Beag & Ormond) SF will run Killeavy, then there's John Bracken and the rest. Obviously that's nearly 4 years away but at this stage 1 - 1 - 1 looks the likely outcome.

I know what happened with Marcella goes against this, but he'd need to get into the county council at the very least to springboard a run - and the fact that he didn't last time out would suggest he has a lot of work to do. Also everybody will be fighting for Tullamore votes, he'd be going head to head with BC the 3rd. I'd imagine Morris might be able to get a bit more of a personal vote and play the whole card about the area being ignored if he doesn't get in. Ormond would have no chance, unless he was actually going to unseat Cowen.

[durra1]

Appropriate time to re-mention that pillar of society John Foley. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InkL_qou54I

4,465 learned folk gave this lad their first preference vote in 2011 !

No s&*t!

[Plain of the Herbs]

If the current Dáil runs full-term there will be local elections a year before the GE. That will tell much about the lie of the electoral land. As you rightly say, easy make a ballyhoo when you don't have to make the hard decisions. I'd say Killeavy will have alot of momentum by then. I couldn't see Shay-mee Morris doing any better in Tullamore than Killeavy would. And Morris' base is Nenagh Town and I can't see him leave that behind. Unless SF have a real prospect in South Tipperary and only run a single candidate. In a constituency the size Tipperary will be I could see them run two candidates.

Agreed there is no more than one FF seat. I know it's only supposin', but if the new boundaries were in place for the last election, Ormond would likely have beaten 'Biffo Beag' for the nomination at the FF convention.

I know what happened with Marcella goes against this, but he'd need to get into the county council at the very least to springboard a run - and the fact that he didn't last time out would suggest he has a lot of work to do. Also everybody will be fighting for Tullamore votes, he'd be going head to head with BC the 3rd. I'd imagine Morris might be able to get a bit more of a personal vote and play the whole card about the area being ignored if he doesn't get in. Ormond would have no chance, unless he was actually going to unseat Cowen.

[joe bloggs]

How much of North Tipp are we getting?

About 10000 of a population in the area. Strip out the u18's who can't vote and those who don't bother you would probably have 4000-5000 votes. I doubt it is enough for any Tipp lad to feel it would be worth a shot